研究
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Unless the situation is suitably managed at the market access stage, the way LEO is being populated today poses a threat to innovation, 增长机会, 有效利用频谱, 国家利益, 空间安全, 还有环境.
Ensuring Innovation and Growth Opportunities in the New Space Age (2024)
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Recurring misrepresentations are being made that LEO orbits between 500 km and 600 km in altitude are intrinsically “self-cleaning”, and that collisions of satellites in those orbits are inconsequential. 这是错误的. LEO satellite collisions at these altitudes have consequences that persist for decades and threaten all LEO orbits.
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Developing congestion in LEO significantly increases the risk of collisions, and longstanding impacts on access to space by everyone. 我们不必接受这些后果. Innovative new systems can deliver better service, 确保空间的可持续性, and allow all nations to compete in the New Space economy.
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Large constellation operators can reduce the risk of a Kessler Syndrome by deploying smaller satellites, or if deploying larger satellites doing so at lower orbits.
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Smaller, less massive, satellites in lower orbits may be the key to sustainable LEO constellations.
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Deorbiting satellites will be tracked and operational satellites can maneuver to avoid close conjunctions. However, this depends on ongoing communication and cooperation between operators, 目前哪些是临时的和自愿的.
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The public satellite catalog does not contain all debris objects, as it includes few objects smaller than 10 cm. Yet it is commonly understood that objects that are 1 cm or larger in size can be lethal to a spacecraft if the two collide.
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The operation of large numbers of LEO satellites in mega-constellations significantly raises the risk of collisions in space.
梅尔曼，扬卡和斯图扎. “Averting Environmental Risks in the New Space Age.“第一天项目”.
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在这样的轨道密度下, 根据多重建模努力, it is not a question of if a defunct satellite will collide with debris, but when.
Undseth快活, & Olivari. “空间可持续性: The economics of space debris in perspective.” OECD.
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One of the major challenges with space is that poor debris mitigation practices can quickly affect all space operators.
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If current satellite internet proposals become reality, 大约50,000 active satellites will orbit overhead within ten years. Even if the most ambitious plans do not come to pass, the satellites will be manufactured and launched on an unprecedented scale.
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When calculations are performed looking for potential conjunctions (intersecting error ellipsoids) so many “potential” collisions are identified that they are routinely ignored. It is vital that this situation be remedied before a major accident occurs.
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A recent ASAT test has focused attention and discussion on the consequences of space debris at LEO and the fragility of near-earth orbits. This paper compares the aftermath of an accidental satellite collision to that of a successful ASAT test. 结果是无法区分的.
Satellite Collisions Have the Same Consequences as ASAT Tests
Policy
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...NASA has concerns with the potential for a significant increase in the frequency of conjunction events and possible impacts to NASA's science and human spaceflight 任务.
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Further, the rise in orbital debris in space compromises valuable assets and threatens to make space inaccessible.
来自U的信.S. Rep. Mark Levin (D-CA) to Acting FCC Chair Rosenworcel
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在过去十年中, two major satellite collisions dramatically increased the amount of fragmented debris currently in orbit.
来自U的信.S. Senators Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Dan Sullivan (R-AK) to FCC Chair Ajit Pai
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Much has changed in the space environment over the past two decades, but one thing is clear: congestion in space — especially the explosive growth in space debris — has created an increasingly dangerous environment for our astronauts and satellites in orbit.
来自Sen的评论. Roger Wicker (R-MS): Protecting our assets from space debris
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It is essential that the Commission’s understanding of orbital regimes, and the decisions operators base on that understanding, be shaped by an accurate measure of the risk of collision between objects in Earth orbit.
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We believe that addressing orbital debris and the long-term sustainability of space will require a basket of multiple approaches. 没有什么灵丹妙药.
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“Spacefaring nations must minimize the risks to people and property on Earth of re-entries of space objects and maximize transparency regarding those operations. It is clear that China is failing to meet responsible standards regarding their space debris. It is critical that China and all spacefaring nations and commercial entities act responsibly and transparently in space to ensure the safety, 稳定, 安全, and long-term sustainability of outer space activities.”
Statement from NASA Administrator Bill Nelson (5/8/21)
Media
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Viasat Exec Chairman Mark Dankberg sat with Jim Bridenstine, 橡果成长公司高级顾问, Viasat Board Member and former NASA Chief to discuss how we can ensure safe, 可持续进入空间.
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整个夏天, SpaceX had lost contact with three Starlinks orbiting earth, leaving experts concerned over the potential for such satellite mega-constellations to add to dangerous orbiting space debris.
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Now, Ekaterini Kavvada, the directorate general of Defence Industry and Space at the European Commission, has warned that this space junk is 'not a theoretical threat but a reality'.
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"But if we don't address the space-junk crisis at a global level, 而不是操作符1, "we risk missing how the environment is degrading,丹尼尔·奥尔特罗格说, the director at the Center for Space Standards and Innovation...
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太空变得越来越拥挤, and experts worry that we might one day face a catastrophic cascade of proliferating space debris, 这反过来又会摧毁卫星, 禁用GPS服务, and generally render space travel and global communications impossible for a generation.
The New Republic: Elon Musk Wants to Move Fast and Break Space
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“The mega-constellations are producing huge risks of collisions. We need more stringent rules for traffic management in space and international mechanisms to ensure enforcement of the rules.”
Financial Times: ‘Huge risk’ of space junk collisions as satellite launches intensify, experts warn
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Viasat, Amazon and other firms objected to SpaceX’s move on a variety of fronts, 包括潜在的信号干扰, environmental impacts to the atmosphere and collision risk...
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"It’s a race to the bottom in terms of getting as much stuff up there as possible to claim orbital real estate,森巴杰说, associate professor at the Department of Aerospace Engineering and Engineering Mechanics at the University of Texas at Austin.
Wall Street Journal: Elon Musk’s Satellite Internet Project Is Too Risky, Rivals Say
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Today, we need to mitigate the risk of “space debris”—spent rocket stages, fuel tanks and decommissioned satellites that could damage other satellites, 宇宙飞船和未来的人类栖息地.
Wall Street Journal: Space Is Poised for Explosive Growth. 让我们把它做好.
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“We face entirely new challenges as hundreds of satellites are launched every month now — more than we used to launch in a year,”...
Financial Times: ‘Huge risk’ of space junk collisions as satellite launches intensify, experts warn
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Some researchers are livid because they fear these objects will disrupt astronomy research.
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最坏的情况, in which satellite collisions create a runaway feedback loop of ever-greater amounts of space debris, 被称为凯斯勒综合症...
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Removing from orbit existing large objects that could collide with one another would be a great start for governments.
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近地轨道已经相当拥挤了. 正如马斯克自己所指出的那样, 近5,000 satellites currently swarm the planet’s immediate environment, and Starlink alone is poised to triple that number.
Space junk is a huge problem—and it’s only getting bigger, 国家地理
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近地轨道已经相当拥挤了. 正如马斯克自己所指出的那样, 近5,000 satellites currently swarm the planet’s immediate environment, and Starlink alone is poised to triple that number.
Will Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites harm astronomy? 以下是我们所知道的. 国家地理